International report

During the first 100 days of his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that have unsettled the commodities market and prompted investors to hold off from making new investments in African economies. In the last three months, Trump has presented the world with “a ding-dong of measures and counter-measures," as Nigerian finance analyst Gbolahan Olojede put it. With such measures including increased tariffs on US imports from African nations (as elsewhere), this new regime has effectively called into question the future validity of preferential trade agreements with African states – such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access to the US market for African goods. "The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA," South Africa's foreign and trade ministers said in a joint statement on 4 April. John Marks, editorial director of energy consultancy and news service African Energy, echoed this uncertainty: “With the Trump presidency lurching from policy to policy, no one knows where they are. And it's very difficult to actually see order within this chaos." Africa braces for economic hit as Trump’s tariffs end US trade perks He told RFI he expects long periods of stasis, in which nothing actually happens, when people have been expecting immediate action. “That's going to be, I think, devastating for markets, devastating for investment. The outlook really is grim," he added. Commodities In 2024, US exports to Africa were worth $32.1 billion. The US imported $39.5 billion worth of goods from Africa, the bulk of these being commodities such as oil and gas, as well as rare minerals including lithium, copper and cobalt. “The focus of the Trump administration is on critical minerals now, particularly in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], which is the Saudi Arabia of cobalt,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project news site. The US is aiming to build non-Chinese supply chains for its military technology. “The F-35s, supersonic fighter jets, need cobalt. When they look at critical minerals, they're not looking at that for renewable energy. They're looking at it specifically for weapons and for their defence infrastructure,” Olander explained. Collateral damage On 2 April, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US imports worldwide, declaring that the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” and calling this date a “Liberation Day” which will make “America wealthy again”. Stock markets immediately plummeted as a result of his announcement. On 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause – until mid-July – on these tariffs. Instead, a flat 10 percent rate will be applied on exports to the US. The exception was China, whose goods face even higher tariffs – 145 percent on most Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports. According to Olander, most African nations have so far been “insulated from the harsh impact of these tariffs” and from the consequences of what is, in effect, a trade war between two economic giants – China and the US. “South Africa, which accounts for a considerable amount of Africa's trade with the United States, is much more exposed to the effects of these tariffs than the rest of the continent,” he said. Africa First But what if Trump's "America First" agenda was to be copied, asks Kelvin Lewis, editor of the Awoko newspaper in Sierra Leone. “Just like Trump is saying America First, we should think Sierra Leone First,” he told RFI. “He is teaching everyone how to be patriotic. We have no reason to depend on other people, to go cap in hand begging, because we have enough natural resources to feed and house all 9 million of us Sierra Leoneans.” He added: “If Africa says we close shop and we use our own resources for our benefit like Trump is telling Americans,...

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought with it a seismic shift in transatlantic dynamics, with rising trade tensions, reduced diplomatic engagement and growing uncertainty over the future of Western alliances. So what has been the early impact of his second term on EU–US relations and how is Europe responding? With Trump's administration wasting no time in rekindling the “America First” doctrine, this time with fewer diplomatic niceties, tensions over trade, diplomacy and the long-term stability of the transatlantic alliance quickly arose. From the imposition of sweeping tariffs on EU goods – 20 percent across the board, covering all exports from France and other member states – to a reduction in support for Ukraine, Trump's early moves have sent a clear message: Washington’s priorities have shifted – and not in Europe’s favour. Brussels’ response, while restrained, has been firm, and the sense that Europe can no longer rely fully on Washington is taking root. Trump's tariffs come into force, upending economic ties with Europe Retreat, rather than reform One of the most striking aspects of Trump’s second term so far is his rapid dismantling of traditional US diplomatic structures. Former US diplomat William Jordan warns that the institutional capacity of American diplomacy is being hollowed out. “The notion of America First risks turning into America Alone,” he said. “Everything that's been happening since 20 January has largely demoralised and damaged the State Department." There has been an exodus of seasoned diplomats, alongside a wave of politically motivated "loyalty tests" handed out to charities, NGOs and United Nations agencies as part of the State Department’s review of foreign aid – asking them to declare whether they have worked with "entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any parties that espouses anti-American beliefs". European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash The cumulative effect of this threat to the impartiality of America's foreign service, Jordan notes, is a profound erosion of trust – not just within US institutions but among global partners. “There are worries in the intelligence community that longstanding partners can no longer share sensitive information with the United States,” he added, raising concerns about the durability of intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes, comprising the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Trump’s decision to scale back overseas missions and USAID funding has also left vast vacuums of influence – particularly in Africa, where both China and Russia are stepping in to fill the void. “It’s not just that it’s being done – it's how it’s being done. Brutally. Recklessly. Slashing and burning institutions that have taken decades to build,” Jordan told RFI. Amid this weakening of America’s traditional soft power influence, however, Jordan also cautions that the country's soft power strategies have not always been effective, pointing to congressional inertia and overlapping funding mandates which have dulled strategic impact. Still, he maintains, a haphazard retreat does more harm than reform. A dressing-down in Munich Europe’s discomfort was visible in February at the Munich Security Conference, where US Vice President JD Vance delivered a remarkable rebuke to European leaders, accusing them of wavering on democratic values. The message was harsh, and the delivery even more so – an unprecedented public dressing-down in a diplomatic forum. The reaction in Munich embodied Europe’s growing unease. European fears mount at Munich conference as US signals shift on Ukraine “Certainly the language was something that you wouldn't expect,” Mairéad McGuinness, the former EU Commissioner for Financial Stability told RFI. “This is somebody coming to our house and telling us they don’t like how we run it. It’s not what you expect between friends and allies. Was it a surprise?...

US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by unprecedented volatility and deep divisions across the country. Praised by supporters for his pledges to "restore faith in government" and "secure borders," his tenure has also provoked widespread concern among Democrats and political analysts, who criticise his erratic style and sweeping executive orders that have disrupted established institutions and international alliances. Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from France The Trump administration has issued over 130 executive orders, including mass dismissals, aggressive immigration enforcement, and withdrawal from climate accords—measures that have had profound social and economic consequences. Critics warn that such actions erode democratic norms and due process, while grassroots protests and public demonstrations have surged across the country in response to policies widely viewed as damaging to communities and public services. Trump's first 100 days: Grassroots pick up Democratic slack as 'chaos' unfolds In this international report, we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with experts suggesting that Trump’s confrontational approach and divisive policies could ultimately backfire on the Republican Party—potentially costing it crucial support.

As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances. Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy. It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada’s place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe. “This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation. “More than nine in 10 Canadians say it’s more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That’s huge, in a country of just over 40 million." From Trudeau to Carney The election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office. While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points. His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader. But it wasn’t just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds. “The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump." Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next? Trump’s re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation. He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border. “Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”. Nationalism, the Canadian way Carney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism. He rejected Trump’s rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically. “We don’t tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked. "We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence." What’s changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada’s relationship with the US, once its closest ally. Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour. “The US was Canada’s best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn’t working." And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way. For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late". New Canadian PM in Europe to seek 'reliable partners' amidst trade war with US Looking towards Europe In Carney’s first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies. That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries’ support for Ukraine. This new...

The global car industry is facing major upheaval after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports in early April – the highest so far in the US-China trade dispute. The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries including US allies, aim to protect American manufacturing. But they are also making car production and trade more expensive and complicated, especially for automakers and consumers in the US and China. Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, a Shanghai-based think tank, said the auto industry has long depended on large, low-cost markets, with China at the centre. He said the new tariffs disrupt this model by raising costs and making it harder for companies using cheaper Chinese production to stay competitive. US automakers and consumers are likely to face higher costs, he said, while Chinese carmakers will be less affected because they do not rely heavily on the US market. The US tariffs are also likely to change how the European Union deals with China. While the EU has already imposed its own tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly electric cars, Beijing and Brussels are now more likely to work together in response to Washington’s “America First” approach. EU votes to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

Thousands of young people across Turkey are protesting against the jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival. Many say they no longer fear prison, claiming they have nothing left to lose. University students were among the first to take to the streets after Imamoglu was detained last month. They believe his arrest was politically motivated, though the government denies this. “We are all sick and tired of the oppression that has been going on for such a while, and we are all fed up with it,” said an Istanbul university student who did not want to be named for fear of retribution. “All these things that happened to Ekrem Imamoglu and all the other political people that are sent to jail, we are just fed up. We can't take it anymore, so we are here to protest against the government.” For another student, the protests go beyond Imamoglu’s case. “Everyone realises that it is not just a problem about Ekrem Imamoglu. We have a lot of problems in our country because of the economy, the inflation, because of the justice, because of the femicide, we have a lot of problems with our country,” she said. Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground Youth defy fear of arrest The protests are the largest seen against Erdogan’s government in more than 10 years. Until now, political apathy, a weak opposition and a harsh crackdown on dissent have left few willing to challenge Erdogan’s AK Party. But the country’s youth are emerging as a key force for change. “They were really the ones that carried the first protests, they were the vanguards,” said Sezin Oney, a political commentator with Halk TV. Oney said many young people are losing hope due to widespread nepotism and corruption. “If you are not connected to somebody, even if you get the best education, then it does not matter; you have to have connections; this is how they are feeling," she said. "They are striving for certain values; they are describing it as something that has to do with justice, with democracy, everything this government doesn't represent." Turkey's opposition calls for boycott as anti-Erdogan protests continue Economy in free fall Turkey’s youth have grown up in a country where 90 percent of the media is controlled by the state or its allies, and schools are designed to produce what Erdogan once called a loyal, pious generation. But that goal seems out of reach. “An overwhelming majority of the young people right now in Turkey prefer a pluralistic democratic system to a one-man strong system,” said Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul Economics Research, a polling firm. Selcuki said the sharp divides between secular and religious youth, once used by Erdogan to hold onto power, are fading as shared economic problems take centre stage. Turkey faces double-digit inflation and high youth unemployment. “As the economy is spiralling down, these young people find more common denominators in this worsening economy, making identity leverages disappear,” said Selcuki. “So the bad situation of the economy is bringing these young people together in a more socio-economic level, from a more class perspective.” Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silent Crackdown on dissent widens The unrest has now spread to high schools, after the government decided to redeploy tens of thousands of teachers. Pupils in schools across the country have staged rare protests. Erdogan has reportedly asked his party to investigate the causes of the growing discontent. For now, the government is vowing to crack down. Court cases have begun against hundreds of protestors, most of them students, with prosecutors seeking up to three-year prison terms. Many detainees say they were beaten in custody, which authorities deny. New laws are also being discussed to curb further unrest. “There is a new crime they (the government) are trying to formulate, ‘disturbing the public order.’ When...

With Ankara warning Tehran not to undermine Syria’s new rulers and its ongoing peace efforts with Kurdish rebels, regional rivalry with Iran has been intensifying. However, Turkey’s concerns about potential US military action against Iran over its nuclear energy programme are now providing a rare point of convergence between the two rivals. After months of diplomatic barbs and threats exchanged between Ankara and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday praised his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, for what he described as a “constructive and supportive position” regarding the indirect US-Iranian talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear energy programme. Oman Talks The Oman talks aim to avert a possible US military strike on Iran, an option that President Donald Trump has not ruled out. Despite the strained relations with Tehran, avoiding confrontation remains a priority for Ankara. “Turkey would be concerned for many reasons,” claims Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, who heads the German Marshall Fund’s office in Ankara. “This would be just another war on Turkey’s borders. Turkey would have to deal with difficult problems, and instability in Iran would almost certainly lead to an additional wave of refugees,” he added. Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace Turkish diplomatic tensions with Iran have been on the rise, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issuing thinly veiled threats to Tehran, urging it not to interfere in Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long campaign for greater minority rights within Turkey. “Ankara believes that Iran is trying to undermine this [peace] process both in Turkey and in Syria,” observes Serhan Afacan, who heads the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation based in Ankara. In February, the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called for his organisation to disarm. With the PKK operating from bases in Iraq and having an affiliated group in Syria, Ankara has frequently accused Tehran of using the PKK as a proxy in its regional contest for power and influence. Afacan contends that Ankara fears Tehran still holds sway over the Kurdish rebels. “Especially in Syria, Iran might try to convince them not to respond positively to Öcalan’s call – this has been Turkey’s main concern,” warned Afacan. Iranian unease The recent ousting of long-time Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has deprived Iran of a key ally, while Syria’s new rulers are aligned with Ankara rather than Tehran. A peace agreement between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels would only deepen Iran’s unease over Turkey’s growing regional influence. “Turkey is about to end the PKK through its policies both domestically and regionally, and this is causing a kind of panic on the Iranian side,” observes Bilgehan Alagöz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “Iran sees this as a threat to its regional influence and a development that could empower Turkey,” Alagöz added. Nevertheless, Syria’s Kurdish-led militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which maintains close ties with the PKK, has stated it is not bound by Öcalan’s call to disarm. Although it has agreed in principle with Syria’s new rulers to merge its forces, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear. Syria’s new leadership Tensions also persist between the SDF and Syria’s new leadership. The Kurdish-led militia continues to demand greater autonomy within Syria — a position opposed by Damascus’s new rulers and their backers in Ankara. Turkey suspects Tehran of favouring a decentralised and weakened Syria — a goal analysts say is also shared by Israel. “The Middle East makes strange bedfellows,” notes Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Sometimes, these things unfold in ways that are surprising.” Lindenstrauss also questions the...

The Turkish opposition has vowed to fight "until the end" against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the leader of the CHP party accusing the head of state of staging a "coup" in arresting Istanbul's opposition mayor. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel has demanded a snap election that he said would serve as the "biggest no confidence vote in history" against President Erdogan, following the arrest last month of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, seen as the president's chief challenger. "Erdogan carried out a coup against his own rival. He carried out a coup against the next president of Turkey, our presidential candidate. That is why our resistance and struggle against this will continue until the end," Ozel told French news agency AFP. Imamoglu's arrest sparked the biggest opposition protests to grip Turkey since 2013, although the demonstrations have dipped in intensity over the past 10 days amid holidays marking the end of Ramadan. To maintain momentum, the CHP is now calling for rallies in an Istanbul district every Wednesday and a rally on Sunday in the key port city of Samsun, on the Black Sea. Polls indicate that Imamoglu could end Erdogan's almost quarter-century grip on power if he was allowed to stand in Turkey's 2028 presidential election The Istanbul mayor was arrested on 19 March on charges related to corruption and organised crime. He appeared in court on Friday on charges of insulting a public official, with prosecutors calling for a seven-year jail sentence. Imamoglu denies all charges and claims the accusations are politically motivated. EU urges Turkey to 'uphold democratic values' after mass arrests at protests Calls for boycott The CHP is now also aiming to broaden the protest campaign by boycotting businesses linked to Erdogan and his supporters. "Ozel realised that just inviting people to the streets is not going to help much," political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners told RFI. "There is a large segment of Turkish society that, either because they fear the police or [for cultural reasons], are not used to protesting on the streets. Now, this boycott campaign allows everyone, whether they are CHP voters or not, to show their support by simply not buying anything." Social media videos urging the boycott identify the companies linked to Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK), from supermarkets to coffee shop chains. The British rock group Muse cancelled their upcoming concerts in Turkey following calls by the opposition, as the promoter was linked to Erdogan's AK Party. "The boycott is the right decision, it is a long overdue decision that needs to be made," said one tradesman, who didn't want to be identified. "If the government continues in this way, the country will get worse. The boycott initiated by Ozgur Ozel is very relevant. We are participating as tradesmen. The shopkeepers in the area all participate." Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silent Students released However, others have questioned the tactics. "I am totally against the boycott call," one local said. "It is our national income, and there is no point in boycotting some to cover up the theft of others. Let them [the opposition] get elected, let them take over the country, that's what I am saying." Erdogan is threatening to punish those behind the boycott campaign. "Every kind of sabotage aimed at Turkey's economy and the nation's prosperity and peace will be held accountable in court," he told parliament. Police have begun arresting people in dawn raids for social media posts supporting the boycott. Almost 2,000 people, including many students, have been arrested in the crackdown on the protests in support of Imamoglu. However, an Istanbul court on Friday ordered the release of 59 young demonstrators, on top of 107 who were detained earlier. The court explained its decision by pointing to the "risk of interruption of their...

The European Union faces a formidable challenge in bolstering its defence capabilities without dependence on the United States, following President Donald Trump's persistent calls for Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade relations are deteriorating, as Trump imposes punitive tariffs that could potentially impact arms trade between the US and the EU. With plans to raise defence spending to €800 billion, the European Union must navigate the political pressure from the United States to continue procuring American-made weaponry, while addressing the practical necessity of cultivating its own defence industrial base. Currently, many European weapon systems rely on US components, making it difficult for the EU to become entirely self-sufficient in defense production. The Eurofighter and Gripen aircraft, for example, contain a significant American components, and strategic air defense systems like the Patriot are hard to replace. The EU's goal of creating a common defense union is politically challenging, but necessary for enhancing collective security. This involves developing joint command and control structures, similar to those of the US and Russia, which would significantly improve European military effectiveness. However, achieving full independence from US military support may prove to be a daunting task. RFI's Jan van der Made spoke with Alexandr Burilkov of Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany, who co-authored a report on the subject, Defending Europe without the US, published by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Turkey’s opposition is accusing Europe of abandoning those fighting to keep democracy alive, as European leaders and the EU offer only muted criticism over the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the crackdown on protests. Rubber bullets, water cannons, and mass arrests continue to meet demonstrators protesting the detention of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival. Yet, the EU is treading cautiously. "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU candidate country, Turkey must uphold democratic rights," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. EU and UK reactions British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once a human rights lawyer, has so far remained silent on İmamoğlu’s arrest. Only one of his aides issued a muted statement, saying the UK expects Turkey’s judicial process to be respected. Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, has lashed out at Europe’s response. "Those who champion democracy at home but empower autocracy in Turkey — those who say, ‘We’ll give the money so the Syrians are taken care of’ — will know this government will change next year. When all is said and done, Turkey will remember the silence of its friends more than the voices of its enemies," Özel told supporters. The UK and EU rely on Turkey to act as Europe’s gatekeeper, hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for billions of euros in aid. Erdoğan’s two-decade grip on power, having repeatedly defeated the opposition at the polls, has left European leaders feeling powerless. "The consensus is that this is something we cannot change, something we cannot influence from outside. Europeans have mistakenly concluded they have no leverage over Turkey," says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. But Aydıntaşbaş insists Europe still has powerful tools at its disposal. "Of course, Europeans have had — and still have — enormous leverage, particularly economic leverage, especially through Turkey’s EU accession process. But they simply don’t want to push." Erdoğan’s importance to Europe is only growing, as European leaders scramble to strengthen their defences against a resurgent Russia and an unreliable United States. With NATO’s second-largest army, Turkey is increasingly seen as critical to Europe’s security. "Turkey is more important than ever in this era of brutal geopolitical realities; it stands between two wars. President Erdoğan has been masterful in playing the West off against Russia, and the US against Europe. He has become an indispensable middle power — not exactly an ally, but certainly not someone you want to cross," Aydıntaşbaş explains. "Europeans are interested in bringing Turkey closer into European defence plans," she adds. "The Americans, too, see Turkey as essential to stabilising Syria. Western countries simply don’t want to risk pushing Erdoğan away." Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor EU and Turkey Even before Europe’s lukewarm reaction to İmamoğlu’s arrest and the crackdown on protests, Turkey’s opposition had accused the EU of abandoning Turkish democracy. Local human rights groups, still battling to defend civil liberties, claim the EU has quietly been cutting its funding since Erdoğan’s election victory in 2023. "There’s a visible hesitation among international donors when it comes to Turkey," warns Sinan Gökçen, Turkey representative for the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders. "When it comes to bilateral or intergovernmental funding, the refugee deal with the EU remains central to Turkey’s relations with Europe. No one wants to upset that. In fact, no one wants to risk provoking Turkey," Gökçen adds. Turkey’s opposition, however, shows no such restraint. As many as two million people took to the streets of Istanbul last Saturday to protest against Erdoğan and İmamoğlu’s...

The conviction of Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Rally, which effectively barrs her from running in the 2027 presidential election, and her sentence to four years in prison presents a major challenge for her party. Once deeply controversial, the National Rally has been gaining popularity in recent years as it seeks to distance itself from its troubled past. The National Rally, formerly the National Front, has a complex history, having transformed from a party once openly sympathetic to Nazi ideologies into one that now seeks broader legitimacy, including forging alliances with pro-Israeli groups—a strategic shift aimed at expanding its appeal. This evolution mirrors wider trends among far-right movements across Europe and the United States, where such groups have sought to rebrand themselves in pursuit of mainstream acceptance. RFI’s Jan van der Made speaks with Nafeez Ahmed, author of Alt Reich, which explores the dark origins of many contemporary far-right movements.

The lawyer of Istanbul's jailed mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has now been arrested, alongside several more journalists, following the country's biggest demonstrations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2013. Ten days after the arrest and subsequent jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, thousands of demonstrators have continued to protest on the streets of Istanbul, despite a ban. A popular opposition politician, Imamoglu is seen as the only person capable of defeating Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls in 2028. Imamoglu was arrested last Wednesday on corruption and terror charges and remains in jail. Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest Despite this, his party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), declared him its presidential candidate in absentia, after holding a symbolic nationwide vote last weekend that saw almost 15 million people cast a ballot. On Thursday night, police raided more homes, with Imamoglu saying his lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan had been "detained on fictitious grounds," in a post published via the mayor's legal team on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). It was not immediately clear why Pehlivan had been detained, but opposition broadcaster Halk TV said his arrest was linked to allegations of "laundering assets originating from a crime". Young protesters The Istanbul Bar Association meanwhile said 20 minors had been arrested between 22 and 25 March on charges of violating a ban on protests. Of these 20, 13 had been released but seven were still in custody, it said in a statement posted on X, adding that it was "closely following" the matter. Many of those demonstrating have only ever known Erdogan as Turkey's leader. "We have the right to vote, we have the right to choose whoever we want to rule us. But he [Erdogan] is taking that right from us," one protestor, who wished to remain anonymous, told RFI. Turkey's Erdogan wins election, extending rule to third decade Another demonstrator who also did not want to give his name added: "We want democracy, we want the people to choose who is elected. We want the free will to choose who we want without them being imprisoned." The unrest is at a level unseen since the Gezi protests of 2013, which almost saw Erdogan ousted. Demonstrations have spread across the country since last week, even reaching the president's traditional strongholds. Students have launched a nationwide boycott of universities, and opposition leaders are warning of a new escalation in their protests. Strategy could backfire Turkey expert Gonul Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank told RFI that Erdogan's strategy may backfire this time. "In 2019, when Ekrem Imamoglu won the municipal elections in Istanbul, Erdogan didn't accept the result and called for a rerun," she explained. "While in the first round, Imamoglu won by a razor-thin majority, in the second round people got so angry and frustrated that they handed Imamoglu a bigger win. So this could easily backfire, and now that there are hundreds of thousands of people on the streets, this could turn into something much bigger than Erdogan had expected." However, Erdogan has doubled down, warning that protestors will pay a heavy price. "Those who are involved in treason and who set up an ambush for the brotherhood of the nation will sooner or later be held accountable to justice," he told his AK Party parliamentary deputies on Wednesday. Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists The president has also taken aim at the media. Turkish authorities on Wednesday detained BBC journalist Mark Lowen, then deported him on the grounds he posed "a threat to public order," the UK broadcaster said. Also on Thursday, Turkey's government-controlled regulatory authority slapped the independent Sozcu TV station with a 10-day broadcast ban and a fine, pointing to alleged violations linked to incitement to "hatred and hostility". Police...

Anger is mounting over the arrest of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terror charges. Seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, Imamoglu was arrested on Wednesday, just days before he was due to be named as the candidate for the main opposition CHP party in the 2028 presidential election. Imamoglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has denounced the detention as a "coup" and vowed to keep up the demonstrations, which by Thursday night had spread to at least 32 of Turkey's 81 provinces, according to a count by French news agency AFP. Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel told supporters: "This is not the time for politics in rooms and halls but on the streets and squares." Imamoglu was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on Wednesday, on corruption and terror charges, ahead of his expected election on Sunday as the CHP's candidate for Turkey's presidential elections in 2028. According to political analyst Mesut Yegen of the Reform Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank, Imamoglu is more than just a mayor. "Imamoglu is now [Erdogan's] main rival, it's obvious," Yegen told RFI, adding that as Istanbul's mayor he has a unique opportunity. "Istanbul is important for the resources it has, it's the biggest municipality. Here in Turkey, municipalities are important to finance politics." Popular appeal Opinion polls give Imamoglu – who defeated Erdogan's AK party three times in mayoral elections – a double-digit lead over Erdogan. This is because he is widely seen as reaching beyond his secular political base to religious voters, nationalists and Turkey's large Kurdish constituency. Some observers see Imamoglu's arrest as a sign that Erdogan is reluctant to confront the mayor in presidential elections. "If Erdogan could beat him politically with regular rules, he would love that. But he cannot be doing that. Erdogan wants to take him out of the political sphere one way or the other," explained Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's independent Politikyol news outlet. "The competitive side has started to be too much of a headache for the presidency, so they want to get rid of the competitive side and emphasise the authoritarian side, with Imamoglu as the prime target," she said. Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscape Turkey's justice minister Yilmaz Tunc has angrily rejected claims that Imamoglu's prosecution is politically motivated, insisting the judiciary is independent. Erdogan sought to play down the protests, saying on Friday that Turkey "will not surrender to street terror" and discouraged any further demonstrations. "We, as a party and individuals, have no time to waste on the opposition's theatrics. We are focused on our work and our goals," Erdogan declared. Imamoglu's arrest comes as Turkey's crisis-ridden economy took another hit, with significant falls on the stock market and its currency falling by more than 10 percent as international investors fled the Turkish market. 'Out of sight, out of mind' However, Oney suggests Erdogan will be banking on a combination of fear and apathy eventually leading to the protests dissipating, and that Imamoglu, like other imprisoned political figures in Turkey, will be marginalised. "The government is counting on the possibility that once Imamoglu is out of sight, [he will be] out of mind," she predicts. "So he will just be forgotten, and the presidency will have its way [more easily]." Turkey is no stranger to jailing politicians, even leaders of political parties. However, Oney warns that with Imamoglu facing a long prison sentence if convicted, the significance of such a move should not be underestimated. "It's going to be extremely detrimental to Turkish democracy. You have jailing of politicians, but someone on the scale of Imamoglu will be unique," she said. Despite Imamoglu's detention, the CHP vowed it would press ahead with its primary on Sunday, at which it would formally nominate him as...

The overthrow of Bachar al-Assad's regime in Syria and its replacement by new rulers with close ties to Turkey are ringing alarm bells in Israel. RFI's correspondent reports on how Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry could impact Syria's future. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's already strong support for the militant group Hamas has strained relations with Israel. Now, Syria is threatening to become a focal point of tension. Earlier this month, Erdogan issued a widely interpreted warning to Israel to stop undermining Damascus's new rulers. "Those who hope to benefit from the instability of Syria by provoking ethnic and religious divisions should know that they will not achieve their goals," Erdogan declared at a meeting of ambassadors. Erdogan's speech followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to support Syria's Druze and Kurdish minorities. "We will not allow our enemies in Lebanon and Syria to grow," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "At the same time, we extend our hand to our Druze and Kurdish allies." Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told RFI that Israel view is not very optimistic about the future of Syria, and sees it as a potential threat to Israel. Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda "The fact that Turkey will be dominant in Syria is also dangerous for Israel," adds Lindenstrauss. "Turkey could build bases inside Syria and establish air defences there. This would limit Israel’s room for manoeuvre and could pose a threat. Israel wants to avoid this and should therefore adopt a hard-line approach." Deepening rivalry Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry is shaping conflicting visions for the future of Syria. Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics' Contemporary Turkish Studies Department, "Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilised unitary state under Ahmad al-Sharaa’s transitional government. "Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border," added Nasi. Israeli forces are occupying Syrian territory along their shared northern border, which is home to much of Syria’s Druze minority. However, Israeli hopes of drawing Syria's Kurds away from Damascus suffered a setback when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls part of Syria, signed an agreement on 10 March to merge part of its operations with Syria’s transitional government. Mutual distrust As Damascus consolidates control, analysts suggest Israel will be increasingly concerned about Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria. "If Turkey establishes military posts in the south of the country, close to the Israeli border, presumably with the permission of the government in Damascus," warns Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, "then the two sides would be in close proximity, with military forces on both sides. That, I believe, would create a highly dangerous, volatile, and incendiary situation." As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead Analysts warn that if Turkey extends its military presence to include airbases, this could threaten Israel’s currently unchallenged access to Syrian airspace. However, some observers believe that opportunities for cooperation may still exist. "Things can change," says Israeli security analyst Lindenstrauss. "Israel and Turkey could resume cooperation and potentially contribute to Syria’s reconstruction in a way that does not threaten Israel. However, this does not appear to be the path the Erdogan regime is currently taking, nor does it seem to be the direction chosen by Netanyahu and his government." With Erdogan and Netanyahu making little secret of their mutual distrust, analysts warn that their rivalry is likely to spill over into Syria, further...

France's recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa are leaving a void that Turkey is keen to exploit, experts told RFI. But while Turkey is profiting from its position as a NATO member and experienced arms exporter, it needs to be careful not to overstretch itself in terms of resources on the continent. France's handover of its sole base in Côte d'Ivoire and a pullout in January from Chad are part of a broader reduction of the French army's presence across the region. "What we are living in now is a transformational age," international relations expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University told RFI. "Many traditional players like France, for example, in that region of Africa are downgrading their own engagement in this area. Not because they have some economic or political constraint but because the local states want them to leave the region." Donelli believes the door is now open to new players, such as Turkey. "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invested heavily in Africa, quadrupling Turkey's embassy presence across Africa in the past two decades. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, also plays the Muslim card and reminds his African audiences of France's colonial past," he says. Insurgent threats However, Elem Tepecikoglu of Ankara's Social Sciences University believes the breakthrough for Turkey came with the French military failing to deal with insurgent threats in the Sahel and broader West Africa. "The image of France is in tatters because the regional countries criticise French missions for failing to help them fight with terrorist groups and for bringing more harm than good," explains Tepecikoglu. Tepecikoglu claims Erdogan's Africa policy caught the regional zeitgeist. "Together with rising anti-French sentiments, this brings opportunities for other countries to step in, and Turkey has several defense or mutual cooperation agreements with Sahelian countries. And according to some sources, Turkey has deployed military advisers and drones at the Abéché base in Chad," adds Tepecikoglu. Macron’s Africa 'reset' stumbles as leaders call out colonial overtones Deepening Senegalese and Turkish military ties was on the agenda at an Istanbul meeting in October. Shortly after the high-profile gathering, Senegal called for the removal of French forces. Turkey's vibrant arms industry selling battle-proven weapons invariably cheaper than its Western competitors, as well as having few, if any, restrictions on use, is complementing Ankara's traditional diplomatic tools in its bid to broaden its influence. "Turkish defense products are now very popular in African markets. So this also applies to Sahelian countries," explains Tepecikoglu, "For example, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad acquired Turkish drones. While other Sahelian countries acquired other Turkish military equipment." Overstretch Turkey remains a relatively small player against the giants of Russia, China, and the United States in the battle to secure economic and diplomatic influence. But the growing competition between Western and Eastern powers could be to Turkey's advantage, says Donelli. "So, for an African state, establishing a security agreement with Turkey is less costly in political terms in comparison with relations with Russia because that doesn't mean 'I break with the West, but I'm doing something with a NATO member'. This is really important," adds Donelli. Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa But Turkey's rapid expansion into Africa does not come cheap what with diplomatic representations across the continent, growing military presence, such as army and naval bases in Libya and Africa. "Turkey is expanding too much. This is called overstretch in diplomatic language," warns International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara Middle East Technical University. "So, Turkey's military and economic capabilities are actually limited. The more you expand, the more you have to pay,"...

With war at Europe's doorstep and US support uncertain, the continent must focus on military readiness and strategic autonomy. RFI's David Coffey speaks with Serge Stroobants of the Institute for Economics and Peace on whether Europe can defend itself and at what cost. The sharp decline in US-Ukraine relations has raised doubts about American support for Europe, as the continent assesses its ability to defend itself against a threat from Russia. Donald Trump's decision to cut military aid to Ukraine this week signals a massive shift in US foreign policy and raises questions about America’s commitment to Europe's security. From shortages in the number of tanks and the availablity of artillery, to the debate over a unified European army, leaders must decide whether to bolster national forces or embrace deeper military cooperation. As France and the UK guard their nuclear arsenals and Russia tests Europe’s resolve, can the EU build a credible deterrent, or will it continue to rely on America? The Director for Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa at the Institute for Economics and Peace, Serge Stroobants, explained to RFI that Europe lacks the capacity to react quickly to security threats, with defence procurement bogged down by fragmentation and slow production timelines. As early as 2016, Germany’s defence industry acknowledged that no major projects would reach completion for at least six to eight years. Today the projections are even worse. “If you want to invest quickly in the military – into defence, into new equipment and weapon systems – these need to be bought off the shelf outside of Europe [and] 80 percent of that investment would [come from] outside of Europe,” with the US, Turkey, and South Korea as key suppliers. Defence neglected Beyond military upgrades, Europe faces a broader challenge as its entire economic and state system must adapt to meet modern security demands. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent pledge to cut red tape for defence procurement is a step in the right direction, Stroobants says, but it comes too late and under pressure from events rather than forward planning. “The problem is – as is so often with the EU – we are doing this under the pressure of the events. We're not doing this in advance. We're not planning. We don't have a strategy." Despite being a continent of 500 million people – and the world's third-largest economic and military power – Europe remains unable to ensure its own security due to a longstanding lack of strategic foresight and neglect of defence spending. As it stands, a unified EU defence force remains a challenge due to Europe’s struggle to coordinate military policy alongside foreign diplomacy and development. Stroobants explains that peace and security are based on three pillars – diplomacy, development and defence. “When you look at the EU, this has been done for almost 75 years, but if you are not able to integrate foreign policy and foreign development...and have common influence outside of European borders? Well, it doesn't really help to only unify just one of those three pillars," he said. While the EU has made progress in development and soft power, true strategic influence for the bloc requires the full integration of defence and diplomacy to establish an undivided foreign policy and a stronger global presence. 'Europe must do the heavy lifting' in Ukraine, needs 'US backing': UK's Starmer Reshaping Europe “For 30 to 35 years now, we have been divesting from defence, but it's much more than defence. It's the entire society that has lived with the idea that we would live eternally in peace," Stroobants says. He argues that to independently deter Russian aggression, European nations must go beyond bolstering their military capabilities – they need to rethink their entire strategic approach. “If you want to be ready, you need to invest in defence...but you also need to reshape your society and your infrastructure,” he...

The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, has called for an end to the fight against the Turkish state. This opens the door to end four decades of conflict that has claimed over 40000 lives, along with implications for the wider region. In a packed conference hall in an Istanbul hotel, Ahmet Turk, a leading member of Turkey's pro-Kurdish Dem Party, read a statement by Ocalan calling for the organization, which he founded, to disarm and dissolve itself, declaring an end to the decades-long conflict. The PKK, designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States, has been fighting for autonomy and Kurdish minority rights in Turkey since the 1980s. Ocalan, imprisoned in a Turkish jail since 1999, made his disarmament call after the PKK suffered significant military setbacks in recent years "The PKK is almost finished within the borders of Turkey," explained Mesut Yegen, a political scientist at the Istanbul-based Reform Institute. However, Yegen claims with the PKK now primarily based in northern Iraq on Turkey's frontier, while its affiliate in Syria, the SDF, controls a large swathe of territory bordering Turkey all sides still have an interest in peace. "We know that the Turkish state needs a peace process because it's worried about the future development in the region in Syria and Iraq," added Yegen. Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq Cautious response The Turkish government gave a cautious response to Ocalan's statement, saying it's waiting for the PKK to disarm. The PKK leadership based in Iraq, ahead of Ocalan's statement, declared it is looking for gestures from the government before any disarmament. "The peace process in Turkey will largely depend on what emerges, what kind of a deal emerges inside Syria," Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting senior fellow with the Brookings Institution in Washington, said. "So we're also seeing Turkey be more cautious. That doesn't mean, you know, Turkey won't reverse course if it feels there's no room to go with Syrian Kurds or inside the peace process in Turkey." Turkish armed forces are massed on the Syrian border with Ankara, demanding the SDF merge with the Syrian army under the control of Syria's new rulers, with whom the Turkish government has close ties. For now, the SDF leader Mazloum Abdi declared his force is not bound by Ocalan's disarmament call while demanding Ankara end its ongoing attacks on its troops. Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relatives Scepticism Analyst Mesut Yegen adds that ending the PKK conflict will come at a price for Ankara. "They're (PKK) expecting that in return for that, the state promises that at least a kind of autonomy or status for Syrian Kurds is going to be recognised by the Syrian regime, the new regime, and that the Turkish state also supports this kind of solution. "In addition to this, of course, the expectation is that some reforms will be implemented in Turkey with regards to the Kurdish question." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has distanced himself from the current efforts to end the conflict, other than saying a historic opportunity exists for Kurds and Turks to live in peace but offering no concessions. For months, a crackdown on Turkey's legal Kurdish movement continues, with the removal of elected mayors and arrests of journalists and human rights activists. Trial of alleged PKK figures accused of financing terror begins in France Turkish commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, Sezin Oney, warns unless the causes of the conflict are addressed, there's little hope of a permanent peace. "Probably, any disarmament or any disbanding of PKK would be a gimmick," warns Oney. "It wouldn't be a real actual disbanding, and it might just appear in a year under a different name. Because they would still have the pretext to argue that armed struggle is necessary because the Kurds in Turkey...

The future of American troops in Syria is in the spotlight, as Turkey and Israel push competing agendas with the Trump administration regarding the role of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in countering the Islamic State group. The United States' military presence in Syria has been called into question, as President Donald Trump faces conflicting pressure from Turkey and Israel over the 2000-strong US force supporting a Syrian Kurdish-led coalition. The US force is supporting an Arab-Kurdish coalition of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in its war against the Islamic State (IS) group. Thousands of IS militants are currently being held in SDF prisons, but the US military presence now hangs in the balance. Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi, of the Washington-based research institute, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Trump is in a dilemma because he ran on this promise of putting America first. "Getting out of foreign entanglements, not committing US troops and US money to parts of the world in which the US doesn't have any interest," he tells RFI. However, Ciddi warns a quick withdrawal would not be without risk: "The dilemma for Trump is that in a theatre such as Syria, if he were to pull back 2,000 troops, then you've got this major security threat." Turkey’s Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity Turkey labels SDF 'insurgents' However, a US pullout would be welcomed by its NATO ally Turkey. Ankara strongly opposes Washington's military support for the SDF, which it accuses of being linked to Kurdish insurgents fighting Turkey. International relations expert Bilgehan Alagoz, of Istanbul's Marmara University, maintains the US deployment has poisoned relations between the two allies, but says a withdrawal by Trump would offer a reset in ties. "I believe that there is going to be a new ground between Turkey and the United States," Alagoz said. "And Turkey will guarantee the safety of US soldiers and a successful withdrawal from Syria. So it is all going to be a kind of new negotiation between Turkey and the United States." Until now, US soldiers in Syria have prevented the Turkish military – massed on the Syrian border – from overwhelming the SDF, but time may be running out for the Kurdish-led forces. "Assuming that the US withdraws at one point from Syria ... this will mean the end of the diplomatic umbrella for the SDF that the US was able to put over them," according to Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope independent news outlet. Selcen warns that the SDF has only a small window to secure its future: "Time is of the essence for the SDF to get their act together and join forces with Damascus... to fold their forces into the Syrian armed forces, which would also satisfy Ankara's security concerns." Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shifts Israel sees SDF as key against IS Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has close ties with Syria's new leaders, and is demanding that the SDF disband or face a Turkish assault. However, the Israeli government is voicing support for American backing for the SDF, given the risk posed by the Islamic State. "We know that the SDF controls prisons in which there are around 10,000 Islamic State fighters and families," explains Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "Nobody wants to see the resurgence of the Islamic State. And I think in this respect, the US understands this is a small number of troops [and] they are effective. So why pull them out?" Paris hosts global conference on shaping Syria’s future Lindenstrauss told RFI: "Israel has voiced that it does want to see the West continue supporting the Kurdish presence in northeast Syria, so there will be Israeli diplomatic efforts to keep the [US] troops there." Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, recently underlined the importance of...

In a sign of warming Turkish relations, European leaders have started lifting their opposition to key military hardware sales, to the alarm of Turkey's rival Greece. The move comes as Turkey, Nato's second-largest army, is viewed as potentially playing a key role in Europe's security goals as doubts grow over Washington's commitment to the continent's defence. Greece is reacting furiously against France over the potential sale of the Meteor air-to-air missile to Turkey. The missile sale and the Turkish bid to procure Europe's Eurofighter threatened to erase Greece's military edge over its rival Turkey. Despite France and Greece recently signing a defence pact, French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly rejected Greek calls to block the missile sale, which is made by a European consortium headquartered in France. "I think that France's decision is related to what is going on in Ukraine," claims international relations Professor Federico Donelli of Trieste University in Italy "Turkey and European countries have the same geo-strategic interest," adds Donelli. "If you ask Turkey and Turkish policymakers, for them, the main threat to the security and stability of the country and integrity of the country remain Russia. So I think that on this point that France, Turkey, even other European countries converge". Turkey’s Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity Force With more than 800,000 personnel in its armed forces, including reservists, Turkey is Nato's second-largest army. The importance of the Turkish military to European security could be ascending with the looming threat of Russia and Washington demanding Europe take more responsibility for its defence. "We think it's an important part of being in a shared alliance together that the Europeans step up while America focuses on areas of the world that are in great danger," warned United States Vice President JD Vance at this month's Munich Security Conference. Turkey's poor human rights record has strained relations with the European Union, along with the authoritarian reputation of the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But such concerns are being trumped by security fears. "After the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is starting to be perceived by Nato members as an important ally," explains Donelli. "Maybe it's not the best ally ever because we know that Turkey's not an easy partner, but at the same time it is the most useful one". Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with Trump Threat European leaders met this month to discuss Ukraine and the security threat facing the continent. With the Turkish army dwarfing its European counterparts, Ankara says it can play a key role in Europe's defence. "European allies understood that without Turkey, we cannot continue the defence of the European continent and Euro-Atlantic security," claims Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin. "And is Turkey ready to support this European security and defence capability? The answer is: 'Yes.'" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, too, is eyeing Turkey's military. During his visit to Turkey on Tuesday, Zelenskyy underlined the importance of Ukraine's allies deploying soldiers to guarantee any peace agreement reached with Russia. "Two issues that are very, very important: a strong Ukrainian army, and the deployment in Ukraine from other armies like from Europe, and the United States, our partners," declared Zelensky at a joint press conference with Erdogan. Zelensky said he had discussed the issue with Erdogan but that it was too early to reveal the outcome of the talks. While Erdogan has close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart, the Turkish leader has also maintained good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Casin insists if all agree, Ankara is well placed to assist. "Turkey, maybe we send our troops to peacekeeping operations. Why do I say it like this? Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations, and the Turkish army is very...

Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Ankara on Tuesday, on the heels of a visit to Saudi Arabia – a move that is being interpreted as a balancing act by Sharaa between the two regional powers, amidst growing competition for influence over Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not hold back on the hospitality when hosting Sharaa, sending one of his presidential jets to fly the new Syrian leader and his large delegation to Ankara. The Turkish president was keen too to underline the significance of the meeting. "I see today's historic visit as the beginning of a period of permanent friendship and cooperation between our countries," he declared in a joint press statement with the Syrian leader. Erdogan also announced that Turkey's institutions and ministries are coordinating efforts to help with Syria's reconstruction. Sharaa was quick to praise this assistance, saying: "The significant support is still tangible through Turkey's ongoing efforts to ensure the success of the current leadership in Syria politically and economically, ensuring the independence, unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria." Macron calls Syrian leader to discuss transition, terrorism, sanctions Ties with Turkey The new Syrian leader developed close ties with Ankara during the years of fighting the Assad regime. The Turkish military protected the Idlib enclave where Sharaa was based, while Turkey offered refuge to many Syrians fleeing the fighting. "Ankara will definitely be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and that, also, Turkey helped protect Idlib," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region, now an analyst for the independent Turkish news outlet Medyascope. However, Selcen cautions that Ankara should not overestimate its influence when it comes to dictating policy for its Syrian neighbour. "The centre of this Syrian endeavour, of this restructuring or this fresh beginning, will be Damascus. It will not be Doha, it will not be Ankara, it will not be Geneva," he said. Erdogan hails Syria leader's 'strong commitment' to fighting terror 'Islamic background' While the Syrian and Turkish leaders meeting in Ankara lasted more than three hours and was followed by an exchange of warm words, no concrete announcements came out of it – only vague commitments to cooperation in security and development. And despite Ankara's strong support for the Syrian rebels, Syria's new leader chose to make his first overseas visit as president to Saudi Arabia, one of Turkey's main rivals in the region. International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University says the Syrian president is sending a message to Ankara. "He [Sharaa] is an Arab nationalist with an Islamic background, not a Turkish one," said Bagci. "And that's why many people expect that in the long run, there will be different opinions on certain regional issues [with Turkey]." For several years, Saudi and Turkish leaders have been engaged in a competition for influence among Sunni Arab countries. But Ankara is at a disadvantage, with its economy in crisis. Unlike oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, it has little cash to offer to pay for Syria's rebuilding. 'Realpolitik' Sharaa also appears ready to broaden his horizons further as he seeks to rebuild his country. "He has turned out to be such a realpolitik buff. He's turning and negotiating with almost everyone, including the Russians," observed Sezin Oney, an international relations commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news outlet. "They [Syria] will also be approaching Turkey with their own interests, and whether they're aligned with Turkey's interests is another question," she added. Turkey's ongoing military presence in Syria as part of its war against a Kurdish insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could...