More or Less: Behind the Stats

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1-in-216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated. This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam’ and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data. We speak to economist Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute, to understand why the revisions happened and the potential consequences of throwing doubt on one of the US’s most important statistical agencies. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Sam Bonham

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year? Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

We’re living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to do basic research and writing tasks. But what is the environmental impact of these technologies? Many listeners have got in touch with More or Less to ask us to investigate various claims about the energy and water use of AI. One claim in particular has caught your attention - the idea that the equivalent of a small bottle of drinking water is consumed by computer processors every time you ask an AI a question, or get it to write a simple email. So, where does that claim come from, and is it true? Reporter: Paul Connolly Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Donald McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year? Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Studio Manager: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

We’re living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to do basic research and writing tasks. But what is the environmental impact of these technologies? Many listeners have got in touch with More or Less to ask us to investigate various claims about the energy and water use of AI. One claim in particular has caught your attention - the idea that the equivalent of a small bottle of drinking water is consumed by computer processors every time you ask an AI a question, or get it to write a simple email. So, where does that claim come from, and is it true? Reporter: Paul Connolly Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Donald McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

In the midst of the television coverage of Soccer Aid, a celebrity soccer match organised by Unicef, the audience was told that “one in six children around the world are currently living through war”. Listener Isla got in touch with More or Less to ask whether the claim was correct, so we tracked down the source to an organisation called the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Research director Siri Aas Rustad tells us how they worked out a figure for the number of children living near to a “conflict” and the big differences between that and something most people would think of as “war”. If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Manchester United are terrible, even according to their own manager. Last season saw their worst ever performance in Premier League history. But at the same time, according to Forbes magazine, they’re still the second most valuable football club in the world. How is that possible? Tim talks to Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert and the author of The Price of Football, to find out the secret of Manchester United’s financial success. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week: Is the secret to halving obesity rates really just a matter of cutting back on one fizzy drink a day? How many new babies in the City of London have a foreign-born parent? And since fewer than one baby a week is actually born in the City of London, how much should we care? Electricity in the UK is more expensive than almost anywhere else. Why? And is it anything to do with wind turbines? And we help out rival Radio 4 programme Start the Week with a claim about churches. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon Show less

How does economics help us understand conflicts through history? That’s the question that economist and journalist Duncan Weldon tries to answer in his new book, Blood and Treasure. Tim talks to Duncan about the economic perspective on Viking raiders, Spanish conquest and the Vietnam war. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week: Is church-going making a comeback in the UK? Is it true that every day, 1000 people begin claiming personal independence payments, or PIP? When the government talks about how it “returns” illegal immigrants, what does it mean? Can a new telescope really see golf balls on the moon? If you’ve seen a number you think looks suspicious, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nicholas Barrett, David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides. Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties. But is this number accurate? Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. In this episode: Why is the data on the ethnicity of grooming gangs of such poor quality? Iran has apparently enriched uranium to 60%, but what does that number mean? Adam Curtis’s latest series, Shifty, includes claims about Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power. We ask Sir John Curtice, polling king of election night, if they’re accurate. And we ask an economist to explain why being pillaged by a Viking might be more lucrative than you’d imagine. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think needs a stern look, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Untruths sneak into our lives in all kinds of ways. Sometimes they’re outright lies. Blatant misinformation. But in this episode, we’re going to talk about something else - those sneaky numbers and claims that bounce around our society and that aren’t exactly false, but are leading you down the wrong path. That’s the subject of a book called May Contain Lies by Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School. Tim talks to Alex about the statistical claims that might not be wrong, but aren’t right either – and how to make sure you aren’t fooled by them yourself. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. This week: We debunk a false claim that the hotel bill for immigrants is the size of the tax bill for Manchester. An article in the Spectator claimed that 4% of women aged between 18 and 34 in the UK are OnlyFans creators. We track down the source and discover that it is not very good. Do people in Scotland use much more water than people in Yorkshire? If so, why? And we examine a popular claim that today’s working mothers spend more time with their children than your stereotypical 1950s housewife did. Make sure you get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think Tim and the team should take a look at. The email is moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth? The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard

What does the government mean when it commits to developing a “10-times more lethal” army? Why was the much-missed Sycamore Gap tree said to be worth a strikingly exact £622,191? Are there really twice as many people teaching Yoga as there are in the fishing industry? Is the number of workers per pensioner really falling from 4 to 3 to 2? And what did Donald Trump mean when he said the price of eggs had fallen by 400%? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. If you want us to look at a number you think looks a bit suspicious, email the team - moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure. So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were. One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are. But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant? “Absolutely not,” says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study. Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Caroline Bayley Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford is here to sprinkle a refreshing shower of statistical insight over the parched lawns of misinformation. This week, we try to unpick the confusion over a claim made by London Mayor Sadiq Khan about the contribution skilled immigrants make to the nation’s finances. Mark Zuckerberg says that the average American has fewer than 3 friends. Is he right? Two doctors claim that up to 90% of Alzheimer’s disease can be prevented. Are they wrong? And Tim interviews an American, Catholic, philosopher of religion called Robert Prevost. Is he the pope? If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team – moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine sceptic, as the Secretary for Public Health might not be the most ‘out there’ thing the Trump administration has done but it certainly raised some eyebrows. Since his appointment Kennedy has been on a mission to ‘Make America Healthy again’ and has set his sights on finding ‘the cure’ for Autism. Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurological and developmental disorder that can affect how someone communicates, socialises, learns and behaves. In the 1980’s one study estimated that 4 in 10,000 (1 in 2500) children in Wisconsin had an Autism diagnosis. Recent data from the Centres for Disease control states that 1 in 31 eight year olds in the US have the condition. Why have the numbers gone up? Is it due to environmental toxins as Robert Kennedy suggests or does the answer lie in the counting? Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Studio Manager: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon