More or Less: Behind the Stats

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions: Are one in four pensioners millionaires? Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Are our prisons going to run out of space? Is the weather getting weirder? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions: Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis? Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries? Is violent crime going up or down? Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS: Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last? What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS? After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs? What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK? What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP) Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy: Is the cost-of-living crisis over? The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number? When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services? Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK? Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe? Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750." Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say. Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures. We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend? Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls. Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. So what’s going on? Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field. These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth. One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner’s Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017. More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time. Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner’s curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting”. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects. So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop? Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market. Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure Liberum Presenter and Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Andy Mills

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation. Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicolas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again. One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: "a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is diabetic' Diabetes does carry a huge burden of health, but are his numbers right and how much of a problem is diabetes in the US and around the globe? We speak to diabetes expert and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, Professor Dianna Magliano to find out more. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Studio Manager: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very big number. But is it true? We speak to Historian Dénes Harai whose paper: 'Counting the Stakes: A Reassessment of Vlad III Dracula’s Practice of Collective Impalements in Fifteenth-Century South-eastern Europe' attempts to set the record straight. Let's travel back to 1431 to separate the math's from the myth. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer. Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should hear. Tim sat down to talk it all over while Corinne was in the UK to promote her new book on the subject - titled Femonomics in the UK, and Having It All in the US. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Reporter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Image credit: Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right? The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true? The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean? And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a marathon run. We ask a scientist if data can help him finish faster. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon