More or Less: Behind the Stats

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week: Is church-going making a comeback in the UK? Is it true that every day, 1000 people begin claiming personal independence payments, or PIP? When the government talks about how it “returns” illegal immigrants, what does it mean? Can a new telescope really see golf balls on the moon? If you’ve seen a number you think looks suspicious, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nicholas Barrett, David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides. Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties. But is this number accurate? Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. In this episode: Why is the data on the ethnicity of grooming gangs of such poor quality? Iran has apparently enriched uranium to 60%, but what does that number mean? Adam Curtis’s latest series, Shifty, includes claims about Margaret Thatcher’s rise to power. We ask Sir John Curtice, polling king of election night, if they’re accurate. And we ask an economist to explain why being pillaged by a Viking might be more lucrative than you’d imagine. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think needs a stern look, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Untruths sneak into our lives in all kinds of ways. Sometimes they’re outright lies. Blatant misinformation. But in this episode, we’re going to talk about something else - those sneaky numbers and claims that bounce around our society and that aren’t exactly false, but are leading you down the wrong path. That’s the subject of a book called May Contain Lies by Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School. Tim talks to Alex about the statistical claims that might not be wrong, but aren’t right either – and how to make sure you aren’t fooled by them yourself. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. This week: We debunk a false claim that the hotel bill for immigrants is the size of the tax bill for Manchester. An article in the Spectator claimed that 4% of women aged between 18 and 34 in the UK are OnlyFans creators. We track down the source and discover that it is not very good. Do people in Scotland use much more water than people in Yorkshire? If so, why? And we examine a popular claim that today’s working mothers spend more time with their children than your stereotypical 1950s housewife did. Make sure you get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think Tim and the team should take a look at. The email is moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth? The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard

What does the government mean when it commits to developing a “10-times more lethal” army? Why was the much-missed Sycamore Gap tree said to be worth a strikingly exact £622,191? Are there really twice as many people teaching Yoga as there are in the fishing industry? Is the number of workers per pensioner really falling from 4 to 3 to 2? And what did Donald Trump mean when he said the price of eggs had fallen by 400%? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. If you want us to look at a number you think looks a bit suspicious, email the team - moreorless@bbc.co.uk More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure. So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were. One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are. But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant? “Absolutely not,” says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study. Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Caroline Bayley Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford is here to sprinkle a refreshing shower of statistical insight over the parched lawns of misinformation. This week, we try to unpick the confusion over a claim made by London Mayor Sadiq Khan about the contribution skilled immigrants make to the nation’s finances. Mark Zuckerberg says that the average American has fewer than 3 friends. Is he right? Two doctors claim that up to 90% of Alzheimer’s disease can be prevented. Are they wrong? And Tim interviews an American, Catholic, philosopher of religion called Robert Prevost. Is he the pope? If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team – moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

Picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine sceptic, as the Secretary for Public Health might not be the most ‘out there’ thing the Trump administration has done but it certainly raised some eyebrows. Since his appointment Kennedy has been on a mission to ‘Make America Healthy again’ and has set his sights on finding ‘the cure’ for Autism. Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurological and developmental disorder that can affect how someone communicates, socialises, learns and behaves. In the 1980’s one study estimated that 4 in 10,000 (1 in 2500) children in Wisconsin had an Autism diagnosis. Recent data from the Centres for Disease control states that 1 in 31 eight year olds in the US have the condition. Why have the numbers gone up? Is it due to environmental toxins as Robert Kennedy suggests or does the answer lie in the counting? Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Studio Manager: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people. One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls. In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange. The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that’s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out. The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility. To explain what’s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division. Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the “dead internet theory”. This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers. The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of “bots”, autonomous bits of software that are definitely not alive. In this episode, we investigate one specific claim about the number of these bots on the internet - the idea that more than half of internet traffic is bots. Where does this claim come from, and is it true? Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He’s also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe. Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett’s money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

An interruption to your regular podcast feed: the first episode of a new BBC Radio 4 series investigating the steep rise in autism diagnoses. The Autism Curve looks into the data that has prompted arguments - and conspiracy theories - about what’s behind the rapid rise. It goes on to explore changes in what autism is, who gets to define it, and whose experience counts. In this first episode, Ginny Russell discusses her 20-year study that showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses in the UK on an exponential curve. And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discovery at a dementia clinic led him to calculate that that enormous rise in diagnoses may still undercount the country’s autistic population by as much as 1.2 million. Listen to the rest of The Autism Curve here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002bszl Archive: BBC; CSPAN; Fox News; CNN. Presenter: Michael Blastland Series Producer: Simon Maybin Editor: Clare Fordham Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office. This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the administration has achieved true? The BBC’s US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling joins us to fact-check President Trump’s claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and….eggs. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Jack Morris Editor: Richard Vadon

Netflix’s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class. The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere’. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha’ male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics. One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie’s hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men. Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

What is the cash value of a human life? That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This episode was originally broadcast on the 9th April. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries. The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US. However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up. Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon