Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Claudia Sahm & Adam Posen. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers - Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock - Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research - Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, joins to discuss how the White House is reacting to the April jobs report. Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research offer their analysis of April nonfarm payrolls. Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, discusses the latest on President Trump's tariff policy and other economic policy initiatives. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data. 2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers. 3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week. 4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise. 5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amazon.com gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for operating profit in the current quarter, pointing toward tariffs and trade policies that may cause consumers to pull back on spending. The world’s largest online retailer projected operating profit of $13 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with an average estimate of $17.8 billion. Sales will be $159 billion to $164 billion in the period ending in June, the company said Thursday in a statement. Analysts, on average, expected $161.4 billion. Amazon shares have fallen about 13% this year as Wall Street weighs the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a retail operation that sources much of its goods from China. Investors are generally bullish on the company’s efforts to become a major force in artificial intelligence, but there are concerns that Amazon’s prodigious spending on data centers may not translate into meaningful sales growth any time soon. Amazon Web Services, the largest seller of rented computing power, reported first-quarter sales gained 17% to $29.3 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates. It was the unit’s slowest growth in a year. For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Dan Ives & Gene Munster. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank - Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel - Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities - Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank, discusses his most recent S&P 500 target and his outlook for US equities amid continued uncertainty over US tariffs. Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, talks about the Trump admin's economic policies and flexibility in pivoting and adjusting its approach to tariffs. Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses Big Tech earnings, previews Apple, and talks Tesla leadership. Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the 10-year yield and whether Treasuries are set to fall. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 1st, 2025 Featuring: 1) Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins to talk "calm(er)" markets, labor data, and Investing Day. In the premarket, US equity futures rallied on stronger-than-expected tech earnings and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. Tech giants added to investor optimism that deals between the US and its partners would limit the damage from President Donald Trump’s trade war, and traders boosted bets on Fed easing later this year. 2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, joins to talk big tech earnings and Tesla leadership. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm denied a report that the board was looking to replace CEO Elon Musk, saying directors are "highly confident" in his ability. The denial came after a Wall Street Journal report that Tesla board members had contacted executive search firms to find a successor to Musk earlier this year. 3) Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book, joins to talk about his latest China data release, Trump's China tariffs play, and the president's willingness to pivot. President Trump acknowledged that his tariff program had a perception problem and posed a significant political risk, but he remained determined to push on. Trump stated that there was a "very good chance" he would strike a deal with China, but only "on our terms" and if it's "fair". 4) Brad Lander, NYC Comptroller & Mayoral Candidate, joins to discuss his NYC mayoral campaign, congestion pricing, Trump's tariffs, and other city issues. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on how AI is helping job seekers pivot to new careers and another story on a Sam Altman-Backed startup rolling out eyeball-scanning tech across the US. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Microsoft Corp. reported better-than-expected sales and profit, suggesting customer demand hasn’t been rattled by tariffs and wider economic uncertainty. Total revenue in the fiscal third quarter increased 13% to $70.1 billion, while adjusted profit was $3.46 a share, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Analysts on average estimated sales of $68.5 billion and adjusted per-share earnings of $3.21. Meta Platforms Inc. posted first-quarter sales that beat Wall Street estimates, a sign that the company’s advertising business is so far weathering the Trump administration’s ongoing trade war. Sales were $42.3 billion in the first quarter, the maker of Facebook and Instagram said Wednesday. That beat analysts’ estimates for $41.4 billion for the quarter ended March 31. The company also said current-quarter revenue will be in line with analysts’ expectations, and that it will boost spending as it continues to invest in artificial intelligence. Qualcomm Inc., the biggest maker of chips that run smartphones, gave a tepid revenue prediction for the current quarter, underscoring concerns that tariffs will hurt demand for its products. Revenue in the period ending in June will be $9.9 billion to $10.7 billion, the company said Wednesday in a statement. The midpoint of that range was slightly below the average analyst estimate of $10.33 billion. The outlook renews concern that the market for smartphones is suffering from a looming trade war. For instant reaction and analysis to these results, plus other tech earnings, hosts Tim Stenovec and Carol Massar speak with Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analysts Mandeep Singh and Kunjan Sobhani. Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Ed Ludlow also joins alongside Clockwise Capital Technology Analyst James Cakmak. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Jim Caron & Peter Tchir. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC - Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport - Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook - Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, looks ahead to this week's jobs report and other economic data soon-to-be-released, and whether he sees investors having to weather a recession in 2025. Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport, discusses supply chain constraints and navigating the trade war. Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook, discusses the company and Big Tech ahead of Meta earnings. Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discusses his outlook for the US economy and interest rates and talks Fed independence. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 30th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, joins for an extended discussion on her weekly global credit report and discusses corporate credit spreads and signals from the bond market. Uncertainty continues to be the main theme across the investing world. Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported. 2) Jim Caron, CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, talks about whether the dollar and US treasuries are still safe havens and how he tries to contextualize that discussion. In a broader look at the economy, real GDP likely slowed to a standstill in the first quarter as President Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg economists. 3) George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, joins to discuss economic fundamentals and incoming eco data and how that, possibly more than policy, will shape markets in the coming months. Stock drifted in early trading as investors await a busy day of earnings and macro data on the final session of an exhausting month. Mag 7 results, GDP and inflation numbers are potential catalysts for market direction. 4) Sinjin Bowron, High Yield Bond and Senior Bank Loan Portfolio Manager at Beach Point Capital, discusses leveraged credit markets, opportunities and challenges amid widening uncertainty, and other signals from the bond market. US Treasuries held recent gains as traders awaited data on inflation and economic growth, as well as the debt management team's plans for sales in the $29 trillion market. 5) Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, brings us into the market open and talks about allocating and staying the course in a slowing economy. Economic data due this week includes inflation and gross-domestic-product data, which will provide a snapshot of US economic activity before President Trump's trade policy shifts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Elizabeth Economy & Ethan Harris. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America - Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab - Kathy Bostjancic Chief Economist at Nationwide - Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, joins to discuss the outlook for US equities and whether fundamentals are still in place for a bull run. Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses signals from the bond market and outlook for Treasuries. Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, preview this week's jobs report and talk about the outlook for the US economy and eco data in the US. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 29th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Russ Koesterich, Global Head of Investment Strategy for BlackRock Scientific Active Equities, joins for a discussion on near term volatility in stocks and whether the bull run in international stocks is set to slow. Investors are tracking a stream of data for clues on the health of the American economy and prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with some experts warning of the risk of recession in the US. Tariffs continued to dominate headlines, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the US has put China to the side for now as it seeks trade deals with 15 to 17 other countries. 2) Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove senior fellow and co-director of the U.S., China and the world program at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, joins for a discussion on US-China relations and who has the upper hand in a trade war. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the "bully". Wang's remarks came as the Trump administration hinted at using new trade tools to pressure Beijing, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested banning certain exports to China to gain leverage. 3) Ethan Harris, former Head of Research at Bank of America, talks about a potential golden age for the US economy and what a post-Powell Federal Reserve would look like. Currently, Fed Chair Jay Powell is trying to prevent price increases from spreading through the economy due to Donald Trump's tariffs, earning him the nickname "Mr. Too Late" from the president. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at their next meeting, and Powell has emphasized the need to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored to prevent a one-time price increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. 4) Dr. David Dodge, former Governor of the Central Bank of Canada, joins to discuss Mark Carney's victory in the Canadian election. Canada's Liberal Party, led by Carney, is projected to win a fourth consecutive election, but with a narrow margin of victory. Carney's win represents a major turnaround for the Liberals, and he has pledged to focus on strengthening Canada's economic independence and standing up to US President Trump in a trade war. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Fortune's story on a harsh new reality when it comes to groceries and inflation and Business Insider's look at how a Chinese mobile dating game is getting single women across Asia to open their hearts and wallets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro - Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US - Abigail Yoder, Strategist: US Equity at JPMorgan - Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins to discuss whether he's becoming more bullish on the US economy or whether he believes data indicates an incoming slowdown. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Hogan Lovells US, discusses the latest on President Trump's trade negotiations and what potential trade deals could look like at this stage. Abigail Yoder, Strategist: US Equity at JPMorgan, looks ahead to this week's earnings and whether they could provide a boon for equities. Amanda Lynam, Head: Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, discusses spreads in corporate bonds and what the bond market is indicating about the US economic backdrop. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 28th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president, joins for a discussion about structural changes in the US economy, the incoming Fed decision and jobs day, and Fed independence. Sources say Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell recently delivered an impassioned defense of central bank independence when he addressed policymakers and finance ministers during a meeting at the International Monetary Fund, which reportedly drew applause. 2) Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, talks about Wolfe's lower-than-consensus NFP call for this week and her expectations for China tariffs. In addition to eco data and trade deals, key company reports this week will be scrutinized for the earnings impact of US trade policies, and fresh readings on the American economy may support hopes of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. 3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for a discussion on how Trump's recent poor polling could make his priorities harder to implement, and why Republicans passing their signature tax bill isn't a given. Voter discontent with President Trump's economic stewardship is sinking his popularity as he approaches the 100-day mark of his second term. Republicans aim to pass Trump's tax plan through a process that wouldn't require Democratic votes, but voter angst and the threat of a recession in the next year could make it challenging for Trump to get everything he wants. 4) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, brings us into the market open and talks about President Trump's tariff policy and whether he believes trade negotiations are on the right track. Investors are watching for signs of progress in US trade negotiations, with the Trump administration working on bilateral trade deals with 17 key partners and drafting a framework to handle negotiations with about 18 countries. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from the Wall Street Journal on athletes using Ozempic and Business Insider reporting on chick sales amid rising egg prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Matt Hornbach and Tim Adams. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

- Jason Thomas, Head: Global Research & Investment Strategy at the Carlyle Group - Adewale Adeyemo, Former Deputy Secretary at the US Treasury Department - Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO of Nasdaq Inc. - Nathan Sheets, Managing Director: Citi Research We are broadcasting from Washington as the IMF Spring Meetings come to a close. Jason Thomas, Head: Global Research & Investment Strategy at the Carlyle Group, joins for a discussion on the outlook for the US equity market as trade negotiations continue. Adewale Adeyemo, Former Deputy Secretary at the US Treasury Department, discusses recent market gyrations and what the Treasury is capable of doing to help support the economy. Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO of Nasdaq, talks about recent earnings and the IPO outlook. Nathan Sheets, Managing Director: Citi Research, offers his market outlook for 2025. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 25th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the bond market, the Fed, and outlook for markets. The dollar strengthened in early trading, while the yen and Swiss franc retreated, as investor demand for non-US haven assets waned amid signs of progress in the White House's engagement with major trading partners. 2) Tim Adams, CEO for the Institute of International Finance, joins for an extended discussion on his talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week and conversations from the IMF. Bessent called for a course correction for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, saying they serve "critical roles" and the Trump administration is willing to work with them. 3) Meghan Graper, Global Head: Debt Capital Markets at Barclays Capital, talks about the bright side of so much uncertainty: investment grade credit. Currently, markets favor a quarter-point cut in June and a total of three such reductions by year-end, with some experts predicting slow and bumpy progress in US-China relations but possible net positive newsflow via trade deal announcements. 4) Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder at Energy Vista, talks about the liquid natural gas (LNG) being used as a key strategic favor and retaliation in tariff and trade negotiations. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ Story on why baby strollers are getting hit the hardest by China tariffs and the New York Times report on ChatGPT costs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.