Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Asian equities were set to climb Friday following fresh highs for US stocks as strong jobs data eased concerns the economy slowing down. Treasuries fell and the dollar rose Thursday in a sign traders see less pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after US jobs growth exceeded expectations in June. Swap traders saw almost no chance of a July Fed cut, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data. The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%. We get reaction from Rob Haworth, Senior Vice President and Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. Plus - US markets closed prior to the House passing President Donald Trump's tax bill that had weeks earlier sparked concerns over rising deficits. Separately, Trump also said his administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 deadline for negotiations. Before the vote, we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He spoke with Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A rally in several big tech companies fueled gains in US stocks, with the market extending its advance as President Donald Trump said he reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Treasuries fell as a selloff in UK bonds underscored deficit worries. Following earlier losses driven by weak jobs data, the S&P 500 rose to fresh all-time highs. In the run-up to the jobs report, economists forecast employers added 110,000 jobs in June — the fewest in four months — amid a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. We get reaction to the day's market moves from Brian Krawez, President at Scharf Investments. Plus - the trade truce between Washington and Beijing may be holding for now, but China is increasingly wary about what's happening elsewhere: US efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. Ahead of a July 9 deadline, US officials are deep in talks with major trading partners in Asia and Europe, pushing for new agreements that would include restrictions on Chinese content, or secure commitments to counter what Washington sees as China's unfair trade practices. In the first such deal, President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a tiered tariff agreement with Vietnam. Exports to the US from the Southeast Asian nation will be charged a 20% rate, Trump said in a social-media post, with 40% levied on any goods deemed to be transshipped through the country. We get the latest from Jill Disis, Bloomberg News Desk Editor in Hong Kong. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian shares edged lower at the Wednesday open after President Donald Trump said he won't delay the July 9 deadline for imposing higher levies on trading partners, ratcheting up trade tensions yet again. Back in June, China and the US reaffirmed their May trade truce, sustaining a rebound in trade flows and propelling China's economic momentum. Bloomberg Economics says consumption also showed signs of revival, but the trend is unlikely to last without continuous policy efforts that promote domestic demand. We take a look at the state of the Chinese economy with Shehzad Qazi, Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director at China Beige Book International. Plus - US job openings hit the highest since November, largely fueled by leisure and hospitality, and layoffs declined. Federal Reserve policymakers have consistently characterized labor-market conditions as strong in recent weeks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the US central bank probably would have cut rates further this year absent Trump's expanded use of tariffs, although he didn't rule out easing at its meeting later this month. We get market insights from Jeff Grills, Head of EM Debt at Aegon Asset Management. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian stocks are poised for a cautious open as investors weighed the buoyant mood on Wall Street with lingering concerns over the global impact of President Donald Trump's tariff agenda. Equity-index futures pointed to a decline in Tokyo as Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan. Contracts for the S&P 500 edged down 0.1% after the index notched its best quarter since December 2023 on Monday, with technology shares leading. Wall Street's bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners. We break down the forces driving the day's price action with Burns McKinney, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at NFJ Investment Group. Plus - with thousands of generative AI tools flooding the market and firms slashing prices to zero, Chinese startups are battling not just global rivals - but each other. We explore the challenges facing the so-called "Little Dragons," the role of state support, and why monetizing AI might be the industry's biggest unsolved puzzle with Catherine Thorbecke, Asia Tech Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity-index futures edged higher as trade talks gathered pace ahead of a July 9 deadline and Senate negotiations continued over President Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cut package. Contracts for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%. Major currencies were slightly higher against the dollar in early Asian trading, while stock futures showed gains in Japan, a decline in Hong Kong and little change in Australia. Crude oil fell 1% as traders wound back risk premium before OPEC+ meeting. We get some market perspective from Shams Afzal, Managing Director at the Carnegie Investment Counsel. Plus - Monetary policymakers from five major economies will gather Tuesday at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal. The summit comes as Trump-era trade turbulence and geopolitical instability weigh on global markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB head Christine Lagarde are set to share a public stage for the first time in a year. For more on how tariffs are impacting economic outlooks, we heard from Louise Loo, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics. She speaks with the hosts of Bloomberg Television's The Asia Trade, Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian stocks advanced after a gauge of global equities touched a record high Thursday on calming geopolitical concerns and increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year. Equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia all rose Friday after the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% to within striking distance of a new high. The Nasdaq 100 achieved the feat after rising 0.9% on Thursday, helping MSCI's global shares index to a record high. US stock futures edged higher Friday. We get market insights from Rebecca Walser, President at Walser Wealth Management. Plus - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the US and China have finalized a trade understanding reached last month in Geneva. The China deal, which Lutnick said had been signed two days ago, codifies the terms laid out in trade talks between Beijing and Washington, including a commitment from China to deliver rare earths used in everything from wind turbines to jet planes. Lutnick speaks with Bloomberg Balance of Power hosts, Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US stock rally lost some steam Wednesday with the S&P 500 Index ending the day flat after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that officials are struggling to determine the toll of tariffs on inflation. The benchmark closed the session unchanged in New York after swinging between small gains and losses, while the technology heavy Nasdaq 100 Index edged up 0.2% to log another all-time closing high. The tech benchmark reached the milestone Tuesday for the first time since February as a combination of robust fundamentals and easing geopolitical tensions boosted the appeal of the growth-focused gauge. In individual stock moves, Nvidia shares closed at an all-time high, with the leader in artificial intelligence chips extending an advance that has cemented its position as one of the most valuable companies in the world. We get reaction to the day's price action from Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex. Plus - Hong Kong's de facto central bank bought the local dollar to prop it up on Thursday, in a move to defend the city's currency peg to the greenback. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased HK$9.42 billion ($1.2 billion) of local currency against the US dollar, after the exchange rate touched the weak end of the permitted 7.75-7.85 per greenback trading band. In addition to pushing the currency back into its permitted trading range, the move will also make bearish bets more costly. It does this by draining liquidity from the financial system and driving up borrowing costs. We get reaction from Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg's MLIV Asia Team Lead. He speaks with Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts and Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks in Asia opened on a cautious note as the Israel-Iran truce appeared to hold and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave balanced comments on prospects for rate cuts. Late Tuesday in the States, President Donald Trump appeared to undermine years of US sanctions on Iran, giving its biggest customer China the green light to carry on buying its oil as he seeks to bolster a ceasefire with Israel. We discuss Beijing's role in what now appears to be a subdued conflict with Jenni Marsh, Greater China Eco-Gov Team Leader for Bloomberg News. Plus - Treasury yields and a gauge of the dollar steadied. The benchmark 10-year yield shed five basis points in the previous session as Fed Chair Powell said "many paths are possible" for monetary policy. We look at the US central bank's path ahead with JoAnne Bianco, Partner and Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx Investment Management. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump announced Israel and Iran had agreed to what he called a “complete and total” ceasefire, easing fears that a conflict between the two adversaries might escalate. Trump, who made the surprise announcement on his Truth Social platform days after ordering airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, said the accord would begin around midnight US time and is aimed at a lasting end to the fighting. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a tweet afterward that while there is no ceasefire agreement, his country had no intention to keep responding to Israeli attacks after 4:00 a.m. Tehran time. We break down the headlines with Joe Mathieu, co-host of Bloomberg Radio and Television’s Balance of Power. Oil slumped and stocks rallied after Trump announced the ceasefire, spurring optimism the worst of the Middle East conflict is over. Global benchmark Brent crude tumbled almost 5% in early Asian trading after the surprise comment. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while key stock indexes advanced in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The news damped demand for haven assets with the dollar weakening against all its Group-of-10 peers and gold dropping. Bloomberg’s Jill Disis speaks with our TV colleagues, Yvonne Man and David Ingles, in Hong Kong. Plus - we look at how all the day’s news may play into the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook. We get market insights from Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist at Baird. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil surged after the US struck Iran's three main nuclear sites and threatened further attacks, exacerbating a crisis in the Middle East and stoking concerns that energy supplies from the region could be disrupted. The US assault — which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — dramatically raises the stakes in the confrontation by increasing the premium that traders are pricing into the global energy market. The extent of the gains will hinge on how Tehran opts to respond to the US moves. For more on the burgeoning conflict, we hear from former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. He speaks with Bloomberg's Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz. Plus - US stock index futures slid ahead of the Asia session following those weekend strikes in Iran. S&P 500 futures opened nearly 1% lower before paring their loss, while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1.3%. We get market insights from Gene Goldman, Chief Investment Officer at Cetera Financial Group. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

American bombers struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites overnight, putting the US directly into Tehran’s war with Israel despite President Donald Trump’s longtime promises to avoid new conflicts. Addressing the nation late on Saturday in Washington, Trump said Iran’s “key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” He threatened “far greater” attacks if Iran doesn’t make peace, raising the specter of even deeper US involvement in a Middle Eastern war that began with Israel’s strikes on the Islamic Republic nine days ago. Trump earlier said US planes dropped bombs on Fordow, a uranium-enrichment site buried deep under a mountain and seen as vulnerable only to “bunker buster” munitions that the US possesses. Natanz and Isfahan, two other sites, were also struck. “Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror,” Trump said. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater — and a lot easier.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the US’s move “outrageous and will have everlasting consequences.”“Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people,” he said. Tehran’s nuclear regulatory agency said there was no sign of radiation contamination at the sites and that it had take precautions in anticipation of an attack. On this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, hosts Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney speak with: - Ethan Bronner, Israel Bureau Chief for Bloomberg News - Joe Mathieu, co-host of Bloomberg Balance of Power - Gautam Mukunda, professor at Yale School of Management and Bloomberg Opinion columnist - Dan Williams, Bloomberg News Jerusalem reporter - Jennifer Lawless, professor at University of Virginia See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity futures moderated declines early Friday as President Donald Trump weighs whether to back Israel militarily in its conflict with Iran. Contracts for the S&P 500 were down around 0.3% from Wednesday's close in early Asia hours, compared with a 0.9% drop on Thursday when US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. While traders were offered some short-term clarity as the White House said Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, the remarks did little to resolve broader uncertainty around potential US involvement and the risk of renewed energy-driven inflation. For more on what's ahead, we heard from Maria Rost Rublee, Professor of International Relations at the University of Melbourne. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts. Markets were already on edge after the Federal Reserve downgraded its estimates for growth this year and projected higher inflation. As projected, Fed officials held rates steady at their policy meeting this week. We get some analysis from David Laut, Chief Investment Officer at Abound Financial. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign that Washington is assembling the infrastructure to directly enter a conflict with Tehran. Meantime, there are a lot of unknowns about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least one thing seems certain: Higher prices are coming. Policymakers voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting Wednesday as they await clarity on whether tariffs will leave a one-time or more lasting mark on inflation. Powell said it’s still unclear how much of the bill will fall on the shoulders of consumers, but he expects to learn more about tariffs this summer. For more, we speak to Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore. Plus - for more on the Federal Reserve's latest decision, we heard from Betsey Stevenson. She is a Professor at the University of Michigan. Stevenson was also a former Chief Economist of the United States Department of Labor. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil climbed and most stocks in Asia followed losses on Wall Street as concerns mounted that an escalation of tensions in the Middle East will trigger a more direct US involvement. West Texas Intermediate crude rose as much as 1.1% in early trading Wednesday after settling at the highest in almost five months the previous day. US equity futures slipped, as did Australia’s benchmark index and Hong Kong futures. Staying with geopolitics, The White House's review of the Aukus pact — a security arrangement between the US, UK and Australia — is rattling one of Washington’s closest alliances, and playing right into China’s hands. It sends yet another signal that America First might just mean everyone else alone. First announced by former President Joe Biden in 2021, the multibillion-dollar deal commits Washington and London to help Canberra develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines over a 30-year period. It was designed to help counter Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. For more, we turn to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Karishma Vaswani. Plus - Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting on Wednesday, reiterating they want more clarity on the economic impact of a wide array of government policy changes before adjusting borrowing costs. Policymakers have warned President Donald Trump’s tariffs could boost inflation and unemployment, but so far, steady hiring and cooling inflation have allowed Fed officials to keep rates unchanged this year. We speak to Bill Campbell, Global Bond Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after he urged the country’s leadership to sign a deal to limit its nuclear program and Israel signaled strikes would continue. It wasn’t clear if Trump knew of a fresh round of attacks Israel may have planned for the city, which has a population of more than 9 million people. Israel had earlier warned one Tehran neighborhood to evacuate and video showed massive traffic jams as people sought to escape. Soon after Trump’s post, Iran’s Fars news agency reported several explosions east of the city. For more, we heard from Middle East Analyst and Author Rodger Shanahan. He spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Shery Ahn. Plus- President Trump's comments on evacuating Tehran caused a jolt in global markets, with US futures falling and oil prices rising almost 2%. Despite earlier optimism that the conflict between Israel and Iran wouldn't escalate, Trump's comments contrasted with his earlier statement that Iran wanted to make a deal. For more, we turn to James Abate, Managing Director & Head of Fundamental Strategies at Horizon Investments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil climbed early Monday with investors squarely focused on escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Iran continue to bombard each other with no sign of a pause. Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% in early Asian trading after Israel and Iran continued attacks on one another's territories over the weekend. Israel launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and military leadership last week. For more, we speak with Pavel Molchanov, Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James & Associates. Plus - S&P 500 futures slipped, while Asian equity-index contracts pointed to declines in Hong Kong and Sydney, and a gain in Tokyo. The dollar saw modest gains against major peers in early trading. With Federal Reserve officials signaling an extended hold on interest rates, investors and economists will look to Chair Jerome Powell this week for clues on what might eventually prompt the central bank to make a move, and when. We take a look at the macro landscape with Patrick Kennedy, Founding Partner at AllSource Investment Management. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks fell along with equity-index futures and investors rushed to the safety of havens such as Treasuries after Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program sites. Crude oil jumped more than 9% while gold also rose. We get the latest on what's moving markets from Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore. Plus - Treasuries rallied across the curve on Thursday, bringing the 10-year yield six basis points lower to around 4.36%. The gains were supported by the second US inflation print in as many days that came in below consensus forecasts, backing the argument for Fed cuts. The dollar hit a three-year low. The producer price index rose 0.1% from a month earlier, compared with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists that called for a 0.2% increase. A solid sale of long-term US government debt added further impetus for the rally, reducing fears that spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the bonds. We talk inflation and trade with Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist for EM Fixed Income Strategy at VanEck. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.